Percentage of Success on Bowl Delivery

 

How often when listening to a skip discuss or evaluate the possibility of making a shot, you hear something which you do not understand. It is probably their way of  indicating the "Percentage of Success" in making the Bowl Delivery or "Shot".

 Skip Aron Sherriff of Australia goes to the mat with the score 14 - 14 in the final end to play and with his last bowl during the 2016 World Bowls 2 bowl Triple Championship.  (still on youtube) and is greeted with the head in the photo on left where England is holding shot which was a toucher by their lead. England also has last bowl.

We can see three possible deliveries. 1) A forehand "lightly over weight" draw to touch and remove the shot bowl or knock the jack back a few inches to Australia`s bowl (yellow) behind.  However, England`s last bowl played by mate was to leave a block quite far up the green against this option.  2) A backhand draw to the jack and /or likewise move the jack back to their yellow. (Aron during most of the play has been favoring his Forehand draw) and 3) A runner bowl to remove the England "Shot bowl". This shot would require a very fine cut (1/4 cut on the bowl). This, the 3rd option, is the choice which Aron Sherriff decided to do and win or lose the game.

 Here, I will explain what I meant by the term "Bowls percentage of Success" as I calculate the "Percentage of Success" The photo to the right is an example of a 1/8 "Bowls of Success" shot. Meaning, to pass the frontal bowl and hit the "shot" allows for only 1/8 to 1/4. Remember that a fast runner does not have a lot of bias since bias applies when the bowl begans to slow. This shot can only be done with a perfect forehand runner. Yes, Aron has made many a "perfect shot".  I would say that the shot has a 1/8 Bowl "Percentage of Success" and only with a Forehand delivery. The percentage can be increased by a slower ("over  weight") delivery.

Once, during a club championship final, I made a 1/8 bowl runner shot like this and my partner said to me "If you can make those Shots, you can make anything." However, my decision to try the shot was base not upon the "Success Percentage" but that the shot had a High level of  "Successful Miss" and of course was not my last end or bowl.  Let me explain the difference. 

As you know, sometimes, we must give up the point or if we do try a shot it is best if not successful that it be a "Miss". In the above example by Aron, his missed shot did not cause  damage to the head. We would say about that shot (above right) the " Percentage of Success" is Low but with a "Miss" there is no danger of removal of the Australian bowl (yellow) which is second. We could say that Aron had a high percentage of "A successful Miss".  However, looking at the same "removal" of the "shot Bowl" (with a Backhand runner right of jack) it become clear that the "Miss" will certainly remove the yellow Australian ( 2nd shot) bowl and give 4 points to the opponents. Strange but many skips can only throw a "Forehand Runner" as a "Backhand Runner requires stepping away from the "Center Line".

The shot which Aron Sherriff tried was the "Forehand Runner" and as we see on the screenshot photo (left)  where his bowl is stopped; the runner (yellow) bowl passed very close to the shot bowl;  Aron just missed by an inch or so. A gutty shot for the Gold Medal of  the 2016 World Bowls. But the better players can and do make these hard and "impossible" shots.

This blog which was started several months ago and now being finished because I was here watching the  2020 Australian NSW Bowls Club Championship Singles Final which in Canada was a early morning  3am as to the Australia`s 6 pm game  time. Watching such great bowls game online is all that we have with the CoVid shutdown of Canadian and Americian Lawn Bowls Clubs.
From March 15 to 19, 2021 we saw the 2020 Australian NSW Bowls Club Championship streaming. was worth the early morning online. ( from March 15 to 19, 2021) Have not missed much of the Australian or New Zealand streaming this year, this 2020  Singles Final  was worth the early morning viewing.

In this game,  Corey Wedlock of Warilla  is trailing at 29 - 30 as he and Ben Twist of St Johns Park go to the mat for the final end of play.  Ben`s first bowl is a toucher and stops 5 or 6 inches in front  of the jack. Corey on his 2nd bowls decides that with the 29 - 30 score, and such nice bowls; the head  needs being opened a bit. His runner takes the toucher and jack to the ditch with a seperation of less than a foot.  (Game over as the toucher stayed with the jack). But I was impressed that Corey threw such a good "Backhand Runner".

The purpose of this blog is not to be an "ArmChair Critic" as often seem to be the reviews of good games. As anyone who has played singles know that a tough part of "Singles" is being alone on the green and at the end game there is a lot of pressure. Was this shot before the last bowl a sign of pressure ??. 

This was a great game,  played yesterday March 19, 2021; and can still be seen on NSW Bowls  . At one point Corey was behind 15 to 26 and came back to a 28 - 28 tie.  So, not to critize but show what is meant by "Bowls Success" or "Precentage of Success" I use this game to comment as in the final end of this game we see clearly the point of "Percentage of Success"as explained as to the number of bowls which the shot can be missed and still be quite an acceptable shot.

From the screenshot (right) we see Corey`s runner bowl (stopped) just prior to contact. It was a "Forehand Runner" which in this case has only one "Bowl of Success" as the contact with the 2nd bowl from this angle offer no level of success. The angle at which the forehand bow arrives in the head is from left to right. Greater "Success" is seen with a "Backhand Runner" which approaches the head right to left. 

On the "Backhand Runner" we see that there are three "Bowls (large) of Success" as even a narrow far right "hit" on the 2nd shot bowl will cause the head to be changed. When putting this in percentage I would say "has a 300 % of success". (No such option on Forehand)

We see that a runner on the backhand causes a difference approach and different results. Above, I mention that some players can only throw a forehand runner. In this case you must know your actual success at throwing the runner. A backhand runner is more difficult.

 

Even a backhand runner hitting the 2nd bowl square on will bounce a bit left and could move the shot bowl left and finally take shot. However, a runner is not the best decision here. 

Also, as Corey had last bowl; his decision of a runner could have been saved for the last bowl and the other bowls used to prepare for such a runner.  Very probably  the quick decision of Corey was more the Pressure of a really great game which all players feels at the final end-game. 

About this Blog.  Sorry, at 76 I am not writting much these days. But from the stats here on the right the Blog is still getting an average of 100 viewers a week. Also it is possible to see how 

Blog Stats March 19

many readers from North  Americian; as it was posted on twitter at 9 am the 18th. Now I will wait for my Southern followers (Auzzi, NZ and SA) which will see the twitter today as I just posted 9am their time.

Todate, the blog has had 53,607 Visitors and last month 450 visitors, although I have not done a blog for the last 4 or 5 months.  It is the old blogs which they are being drawn to read.  Meaning that there are a lot whom are seeking information.

Note: The stats list Followers as 8 which are readers who have a blogger account although the blog actual readership is about 300 of the better Lawn Bowlers from South Africa to England and both North and South America.