What's the Shot - Percentage View (AMem)

 This blog based upon a photo/question of the Boulingrin Quebec Bowls website, is to explain my opinion on calculating the percentage of success when a chosen shot decision is made by the skip or team. Looking at some of the basic indicators of the skip success or ability to perform difficult shots; realizing that each bowls-in-the-head setup is different for each skip. Also the location in the game and how the success or failure will affect the final score must be considered.

Not all information is given by the photo as a jack this  close to the ditch must have been moved from the it's "Respot" position. Especially. with it still on center line, it would have been moved twice. Very likely a short jack was placed on the "respot" and in this Single's match, the lone frontal bowl (yellow/blue)  probably moved the jack a few feet left which was then pushed to it present position by the now (Blue) Frontal Bowl. In my opinion this is the only way a "Respotted Jack" can be moved 2 meters toward the ditch and arrive afterward on the Center line at Ditch edge.

Now to attack this problem as these two possibilities. 1-that the blue Point bowl and the far frontal bowls are  both touchers and 2- that there is no touchers behind the jack..

My Reply to Website

My reply to the website inquiry with  photo above and reply (left image) and suggest that due to the Percentage of Success the Yellow bowl's player decision should be a foot overdraw to the jack. I will explain this method of percentage calculated by "Bowl Size Error Percentage" or chance of success.

With this type of calculation it assumes that if you miss your draw for shot or jack roll your luck within a few bowls off shot will still give you a good result. There is another factor used in these decisions which does not apply in this analysis. "Percentage of Success Failure". Yes, sometime we are able to try a shot or strategy because if we fail the missed performance will do no damage or increase the total points lost.  Here we have three points and the objective must be to gain the point or make a change which only loses one point.

After I have explained farther this method of Percentage Success, I will take a few paragraphs to explain the "Player's Success Percentage" on certain types of deliveries. Every Skip usually knows his abilities and even will question his state of performance on the day of game in making his decisions. DON'T TRY WHAT YOU KNOW YOU CAN'T DO.

 The three yellow circles are 3 possible bowl rolls in the draw from the left (back hand for righthander) and most important is the draw weight. Although 2nd and 3rd possible rolls can stop on the opponents 2nd shot giving shot or cutting to 1 point. If first bowl was to hit the jack left it is still only one shoot as the rolled bowl would stay in as 2nd count.

The single yellow bowl circle show the Unsuccessful percentage hole which could give extra points but one bowl in four bowls is a 25% Failure Percentage.  But also how the bowl was to hit the point bowl it could replace it and capture the point. Most important is the weight. Enough to be in the head but not more than a foot overweight. The single yellow bowl circle could cause a hit on the point bowl moving it to the jack and send the jack to the ditch or it could keep the 3 points active as the jack move closer to 2nd and 3rd.

Because of the 3 possible bowls rolls directions the actual shot is to try to draw for point at the black #1 bowl position and even if a bit heavy it will draw up to 2nd shot leaving only one point. If the jack was to be moved by a runner the "respot of the jack"  would come forward for two points but unless the jack was to hit one of the back too bowls it would not go out of bounds but go to the ditch, which is why a Runner is not the choice shot unless it is the winning points on the green and it is runner or lose. 

 here because not all skips are good draw bowlers on each hand of delivery. Also almost all lawn bowlers have a different draw weight for a Forehand Delivery and a Back hand delivery; and the decision has a lot to do with the skips performance percentage. 

, with all others as non-touchers.  Why?  I can see the frontal (point) bowl as a toucher to a jack as a "Jack trail" and that the jack was off "Center Line" (probably left of the start of the center arrow) after it had been moved. With the bowl far out front it is assumed it as first delivery had moved the jack to a point left of the center arrow. This has to bee assumed because of the narrow circle of points of blue bowls, which suggest two teams with good draw abilities.